6.5 BTC and ETH Midday Market Update BTC is starting to consolidate now. At this point, it's a showdown where both bulls and bears can play—where are you betting? My subjective view this round is a rebound. I won’t be stubborn; if I’m wrong, I’ll exit for sure. You decide for yourselves. First, let's talk BTC. Earlier, it repeatedly tried to break through the 64433 resistance but failed several times. Now it’s honestly pulling back, currently testing support at 62207. Pay close attention: the chart has quietly formed a small M-top, with the neckline right at 62207. Whether this level holds is absolutely critical. If 62207 is decisively broken, confirming the M-top, then the previous low at 61344 will very likely face a second test. Honestly, I don’t want to see this M-top play out because if it goes back to 61344, that previous low feels as fragile as paper and might not hold. If it doesn’t hold, the price will head down to activate buying around 59813, breaking the major psychological 60,000 level. Whether it’s a wick break or a slow decline, a break is bad news and will damage market sentiment. So the best scenario now is to honestly oscillate and grind within this range. Ideally, it would break above the neckline at 64433 with volume, stop falling, and rebound, targeting 66000 first. If it can’t break through, it will continue to consolidate. But seriously, please don’t drop further—further declines hurt both bulls and bears, and the back-and-forth stop losses are frustrating. For trading: be clear and remember some key levels. With volume, a close above 63206 is a right-side long entry, targeting 64433-65778. If it can’t hold above, it’s useless. With volume, a break below 62187 and failure to reclaim on a pullback is a right-side short entry; stop losses must be tight, don’t hold losing positions. On the 4-hour chart, if 62441 breaks, look down to 61344-59888. Support and resistance are those levels mentioned: 63206/64433/65778 above, 62139/61344/59888 below—just keep them in mind. Now for ETH, it’s weaker. Recently, it had a false breakout above the downtrend line, but now it’s rolling back below it, losing support at 1767. This clearly signals a second test of the bottom. If the previous low holds, expect consolidation between 1767 and 1714. If the previous low breaks smoothly, forget it—head down to 1660 to buy. To rebound, ETH must climb back above 1767; otherwise, it’s weak and will keep oscillating. Remember these levels: with volume, a breakout above 1758 is a right-side long entry; if price closes back below, use that as a stop loss. If it holds, target 1789-1817. With volume, a break below 1734 is a right-side short entry with stop loss. A pullback to 1695 that holds is a long entry; if it breaks 1661, exit immediately to protect capital. For left-side entries, place a long at 1631; if it breaks 1595, cut losses and exit. Watch 1817 above; if reached, consider a short, but if it breaks 1851, stop loss immediately—don’t be stubborn. On the 4-hour chart, if 1695 doesn’t hold, look down to 1662-1629. Finally, a few blunt words. Liquidity in the market is as thin as porridge right now, especially beware of sudden wicks that pierce your short stop loss and then instantly bounce back. These are often manipulations by market makers activating buy orders, not real breakdowns—don’t get trapped. Around 62200 and near 1734, if you see volume with lower shadows, that’s a signal bulls can try to test. In short: don’t act until you see clear signals, always use stop losses, and let the market makers play their game. We only take the meat we understand. $BTC $ETH

The 60k level cannot be generalized like before. On spot markets across major exchanges, huge buy orders have forcibly built a thick buy wall. Large capital liquidity is clustered and anchored near the current price. The bulls have finally grasped a solid defensive bottom line, the most critical short-term battleground is right here. Simply put, the spot buy orders stacked around 60k are no longer just a psychological support level for retail investors, they represent real, substantial main capital choosing to defend the price on site. Recently, with continuous dips, the market has never lacked a variety of bullish and bearish narratives, what’s scarce has always been actual spot buy support. In the futures market, random price spikes and consecutive liquidations are routine, without large spot capital backing, even the most impressive rallies are hollow and unsustainable. Now, the sudden appearance of a dense buy wall at 60k means big money is unwilling to let the price break down easily. To be honest, a buy wall can’t be treated as an ironclad guarantee; it’s common for main players to temporarily cancel orders to induce shorts. But looking at the current market: Panic is widespread, shorts are heavily concentrated, and the liquidity available for dumping at lower levels has already shrunk significantly. In this environment, the sudden emergence of large spot buy orders is obviously valuable for short-term trend reference. The current BTC market summary is straightforward: If the 60k defense holds, there’s room for a rebound. If 60k is completely broken by the bears, the following decline will be intense. $BTC

Non-farm payroll data significantly exceeded expectations. The 'King of Understanding' directly stepped in to declare confidently that the market should rise, not fall. However, the market completely rejected this, unanimously voting with their feet. The attractive non-farm data is essentially just a lifeline for tightening. Expectations for rate cuts continue to be pushed back, delaying the actual timing further. All kinds of risk assets are deflating across the board, collectively weakening. Even BTC can't withstand the pressure this round and struggles to hold up alone. Just a casual reminder, don't rush to bottom-fish in the short term. $BTC $ETH $SOL #非农数据公布：就业人口17.2万人，远超预期

Absolutely outrageous! An epic split in the AI sector has arrived! Market cap plunged overnight! The two storage giants dropped over 7%+, yet industry leaders say: this is hardly a disaster NVIDIA directly cut Rubin platform memory configuration by 49%. As soon as the news broke, the storage sector was smashed down. #英伟达减配内存：美光海力士两连跌 Micron plummeted 7.7% overnight, followed closely by SK Hynix dropping over 8.3%. This is basically the harshest correction recently. But here’s the interesting point. Industry research leader Patel came out afterward with a very clear stance. This is not an industry disaster at all. Honestly, the market reaction and the professional assessment within the circle are hugely contrasting. Many retail investors now have polarized mindsets. Either they think the storage logic is completely broken, or they believe this is a brainless oversell. Let me simply explain the underlying truth, no beating around the bush. This time NVIDIA’s large memory cutback is not about overturning the existing memory architecture. Nor is it about a significant downgrade in AI computing power’s memory demand. The core reason is just one: a real supply chain bottleneck. Currently, HBM4 production capacity and yield rates are severely lagging. The mass production yield rates of several major storage manufacturers simply can’t keep up with NVIDIA’s shipment pace. This is a forced compromise, purely to ensure delivery. They don’t want memory bottlenecks to delay the overall server rack deployment schedule. So this big drop is mostly driven by sentiment. The declines in Micron and SK Hynix are clearly an overreaction caused by excessive market panic. The fundamentals have not completely deteriorated. This distinction must be clear; don’t let short-term market moves mislead your judgment. Another super critical signal many overlook. The current AI hardware chain has already experienced its first extreme divergence. On one side, the two storage giants are deeply correcting. On the other, Marvell surged violently by 32%, creating a super standout rally. In the same AI track, the bipolar trend is truly stark. It’s now very clear within the circle that this is not short-term speculative chaos or mispricing. It’s the AI computing power demand structure quietly reshuffling. Previously, the market blindly piled on memory and hardware capacity. Everyone assumed the stronger the memory, the better the AI computing cost-performance. But now it’s completely changed. After the popularization of MoE architecture and large cluster inference, data transmission and interconnect efficiency within computing clusters have long surpassed pure memory capacity in priority. Simply put, the industry’s focus has shifted. Memory is no longer the sole core pain point of AI hardware. Optical interconnect and high-speed transmission are now the most scarce links. This is the underlying logic behind Marvell’s takeoff and storage’s weakness. By the way, a quick note on the contract market. OKX’s Micron perpetual contracts will experience extremely volatile fluctuations recently. The long-short battles are especially fierce, with heavy sentiment-driven trading. Short-term, it’s really not recommended to blindly bottom-fish or chase orders recklessly. Finally, a straightforward summary of the key conclusions. This NVIDIA memory cutback is a passive move due to short-term supply chain constraints. It’s not a long-term architectural upheaval. The storage sector’s recent drop has room for overcorrection and will see sentiment recovery later. But remember the key point. The era of AI hardware has changed. The phase of simply profiting from memory expansion is completely over. The next main theme will firmly focus on interconnect and transmission tracks. The industry’s internal structural shift has been firmly established. $MU $NVDA $TAO

The ultimate catalyst for the crypto market and beyond is already on its way. SpaceX officially announced its IPO on June 12, with an issue price locked at $135, corresponding to a valuation of $1.77 trillion. This top-tier global tech company holds 18,712 BTC on its balance sheet. #SpaceX：Planned IPO on June 12, issue price locked at $135 The largest IPO in human history is finally happening. SpaceX skipped the traditional price range roadshow and locked in the $135 issue price right after the preliminary roadshow. This valuation of $1.77 trillion surpasses Tesla, making it the seventh largest listed company in the U.S. Market demand is extremely hungry. As soon as the roadshow started, institutional orders exceeded expectations by several times. But this valuation requires sustained exponential growth over the next decade to hold. Cash flow from rocket launches, subscription revenue from Starlink, plus the new narrative of AI computing power transmission. Whether these combined can meet Wall Street’s expectations will be directly reflected in the opening premium. Whether this is truly long-term capital snapping up core assets or just pure IPO hype will be revealed on June 12. What’s even more noteworthy for the crypto market is the hidden gem in the prospectus. SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC on its balance sheet at an average cost of $35,000 each. This number not only exceeds Tesla’s 11,509 BTC but also makes SpaceX the largest Bitcoin holder among global non-crypto companies. This is not a speculative short-term allocation. SpaceX has not sold a single Bitcoin since 2024, clearly treating it as a long-term treasury reserve asset. If SpaceX successfully lists and opens strong on June 12, it will be the highest-profile mainstream endorsement of Bitcoin as a corporate treasury narrative to date. A global top-tier tech company valued near $2 trillion has written Bitcoin into its balance sheet. This alone will make countless traditional institutions reassess Bitcoin’s allocation value. And the crypto market is currently at a moment when it most needs a catalyst. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with cumulative withdrawals exceeding $4 billion. Market sentiment has hit rock bottom, and Bitcoin’s price has pulled back more than 25% from its yearly high. SpaceX’s IPO will be the key variable to reverse the capital and sentiment trend. It will prove to all of Wall Street that Bitcoin is no longer a fringe asset but a core reserve asset recognized by the world’s top tech company. This level of endorsement is unmatched by any ETF. $BTC $SPCX

Having been in the crypto circle for a long time, scenes like this are nothing unusual. Don’t trust big influencers shouting trade calls; if they run, you running after them is already too late. Three days ago, Hayes was confidently betting $100,000 that HYPE would outperform the top ten coins by the end of the year. But three days later, he just hit the sell button, liquidating all 247,000 tokens, cashing out $18 million, and left only a note saying he’d explain the reason in an article next week. #HYPE：Long positions liquidated, institutions buying against the trend Hilarious, the market won’t wait for your article. The moment you sell, all expectations have already played out. Don’t talk about taking profits; his cost basis was so low, if he really believed, he could have held. This move is purely about avoiding short-term risk. He himself said before that with rising energy prices, AI IPO distractions, and a possible peak in autumn, smart people never make the last penny. As for his article next week, just take it as entertainment. The top smart money in crypto always acts first and explains later; the words are for retail investors, don’t take them seriously. Here’s the most interesting part: while Hayes just dumped, institutions are already aggressively buying. a16z has been doing TWAP buys for four consecutive days, spending $46.3 million, accumulating nearly 6.6 million tokens this year, now the largest external shareholder of HYPE, even more than Paradigm. Also, Loracle, who lost $46 million shorting before, has completely flipped to long. This turnover is the real key; all short-term floating chips have transferred to long-term institutional hands. The biggest risk before was a bunch of short-term arbitrage players who would collectively dump at the slightest sign of trouble, making it impossible to rally. Now it’s better: smart money like Hayes is gone, panic retail has mostly fled, and what’s left are institutional holders who can hold. Short-term volatility will continue, as the sentiment from Hayes’ exit remains, panic selling isn’t fully over, and the shakeout will last a few more days. But the mid-to-long-term landscape has completely changed: chips are more concentrated, selling pressure is lighter, and future rallies will be much easier. In short, what looks like bad news is actually a change of hands and a shakeout, washing out the weak hands and paving the way for the next phase. $HYPE

Brothers This time it’s really not right 13 consecutive days of outflows BlackRock alone pulled out 3.3 billion Never seen such a scale before Stop holding on stubbornly 13 trading days of continuous net outflow. A total of 4.4 billion USD withdrawn. BlackRock and IBIT alone contributed 3.3 billion. Even scarier. The 7-day, 14-day, and 30-day rolling windows. Outflow data all broke historical records since the ETF listing. This is definitely not retail panic selling. It’s a systemic withdrawal at the institutional level. Saylor came out yesterday to spin it. Said it’s just capital rotation to AI. 400 billion invested in AI infrastructure over half a year. Withdrawing 4 billion from Bitcoin is normal. Sounds somewhat reasonable. But it can’t hide a more painful fact. Institutions holding BTC. Are reevaluating its position in their portfolios. What was hyped for the past two years? Institutional must-have asset. Once the ETF opened the floodgates. Everyone waited for Wall Street to push BTC to 200k or 300k. But now AI infrastructure offers more certain, more rigid returns. Capital votes with its feet. K Wave directly abandoned a 500 million USD BTC allocation plan. Turned around and poured into AI data centers. Bitdeer went even further. Cleared all Bitcoin reserves. Fully committed to high-performance computing. This is not an isolated case. This is a global smart money mass migration. This revaluation process. Is far from over. Even more embarrassing. The myth of "only buy, never sell" for six years. Shattered to pieces. MicroStrategy now has an unrealized loss of 10.8 billion USD. Average holding cost 75,700 USD. Every coin in hand is at a loss. More ironically. Since August 2020 when he started going all-in on Bitcoin. The S&P 500 has risen 116%. His BTC holdings have dropped 17%. Underperforming by a full 133 percentage points. Six years. With such high leverage. In the end, he can’t even beat the market. This slap. Hits the face of everyone who believed Bitcoin is the best risk asset. It hurts. He just sold 32 Bitcoins. Directly scared the market shitless. What does this mean? It means faith in him in the market. Is as fragile as paper. Everyone is watching his wallet. Afraid he won’t hold on someday. And start dumping and running. If ETF outflows continue like this. Saylor won’t have any new narrative that holds up. Digital gold? No one believes it anymore. Inflation rises, it doesn’t rise. Geopolitical conflicts, it doesn’t rise. Institutional must-have? Now a joke. Halving rally? Long exhausted. At most he can still stubbornly claim Bitcoin is the settlement currency of the AI era. Some energy currency. Or keep shouting never sell. Then secretly sell more. But it’s really useless. The most dangerous thing now isn’t the price drop. It’s the total collapse of the narrative. An asset. That doesn’t even have a story to support its rise. What’s left. Is only free fall. $BTC $ETH

Anthropic's move this time. I really laughed out loud. Not even pretending to act. Just yesterday, standing on the moral high ground. Calling for a global pause on cutting-edge AI development. Saying humanity isn't ready yet, the risks are too great. Today, it was exposed. Claude has already written 80% of the company's codebase. The closed loop of AI accelerating AI development has long been running smoothly. They are pressing the gas pedal harder than anyone else. Honestly, this is not an internal ideological conflict at all. It's purely a standard PR script before the IPO. From the day Anthropic was born. Its core selling point has never been that its model is stronger than OpenAI's. It's "safety." It's "the team that left OpenAI because they couldn't stand commercialization overpowering safety." Relying on this persona. It forcibly snatched the fattest cake from OpenAI's mouth. Finance, legal, medical—these highly sensitive industries. Almost all are its clients. 8 out of the top 10 Fortune companies use it. 70% of the first-time AI service buyers in the US choose it. 80% of its revenue comes from big clients paying over a million dollars annually. This is the power of trust. The market is willing to pay over $200 billion in premium for the words "safer, more controllable." Now with a valuation of $965 billion. At least one-third of it is supported by this safety persona. But now the problem arises. When everyone sees clearly. The so-called "pause in development" is just for outsiders. Their internal R&D speed hasn't slowed down at all. On the contrary, it's become faster because AI writes code. That persona just collapsed. Once the market no longer believes it is safer than OpenAI. The underlying logic supporting its valuation shatters directly. The ultra-high price-to-sales ratio will drop. The inflated trust premium will be squeezed out. The entire pricing system will be completely restructured. To put it plainly. The people who understand AI dangers the most. Are precisely the ones most motivated to accelerate. Because only by running fastest can they gain the power to set the rules. The so-called call for a global pause. Translated means. Wait for me to finish going public, get the money and computing power. Then we can sit down and slowly talk about safety. $ANTHROPIC $OPENAI

US crypto regulation is really getting serious this time. This is not the kind of empty slogans from before. A concrete implementation timeline has clearly emerged. The core is the CLARITY Act. After being in the circle for so long, it’s finally no longer vague rumors. Senator Lummis’s latest statement is very straightforward. In theory, the bill could pass directly before Congress recesses on July 4th. But to be honest, the circle generally agrees the more realistic implementation time is August. Why the delay? Simply put, the authorities don’t want fragmented legislation. They are currently consolidating all US crypto-related bills. They want to package and finalize all the rules at once, not just pass a half-baked product. Those who understand know this will have a huge impact on the entire crypto space. Previously, the biggest market panic was never about regulation itself. It was about the lack of clear rules. Who regulates? What counts as compliance? Where is the boundary between securities and commodities? Exchanges, projects, and institutions have all been feeling their way forward. Uncertainty is the biggest mountain weighing down the market. The core value of the CLARITY Act is just one thing. To definitively set the rules of the game for the US crypto market in black and white. Standardizing responsibilities, asset definitions, and trading regulations. Completely eliminating expectation gaps for institutions, capital, and practitioners. But every advantage has its downside. The more they want to perfect all clauses at once, the slower the progress. This time the consolidation covers a lot. Stablecoin regulation, exchange compliance, market structure norms. And the most headache-inducing: defining the boundary between securities and commodity assets. A bunch of core issues require multi-party coordination and alignment. It’s simply impossible to rush a vote and pass it quickly. So short-term traders, don’t misunderstand. This is not a sudden bullish event that pumps and dumps. It won’t violently spike without landing. Essentially, it’s a process where regulatory negatives are fully priced in and expectations gradually improve. Passing smoothly in July would be a short-term emotional catalyst. Even if delayed to August, it’s not a bad thing at all. It actually shows the US is seriously embracing the crypto market. Not a one-size-fits-all crackdown, but integrating it into the formal financial system’s oversight. This step’s implementation really means something different. The regulatory boot hanging over our heads has been swinging for years. Now it’s finally starting to land steadily. The crypto market is completely saying goodbye to the era of wild growth. Next up is a slow bull market preparation period of standardization and institutionalization. $BTC $ETH $SOL

6.4$ETH Evening Market ETH doesn't have much going on. On the hourly chart, it's moving down within a channel, and there's an M-top pattern trapped inside. The neckline at 1767 has already been broken. The structure is broken, folks, don't overthink it. If 1767 can't hold, there's only one thing to do—go have tea at the previous low of 1712. If it holds and forms a double bottom, it might bounce back a bit. If it can't hold, then directly look at 1660, no negotiation. Bulls want to turn things around? Fine, put real money on holding above 1767. If it holds, then we can look to see if it can break 1816. Honestly, if it can't even hold 1767, looking up is just adding frustration. For those wanting to try on the left side, short half a position near the 1817 rebound as a gamble. If you want to be safe, wait for a volume break below 1753 to chase on the right side. Don't rush to get on during a low-volume decline; it tends to be choppy. Below 1730, if the 4-hour candle can't hold, the next stop opens at 1688-1658. The daily chart is easier to handle; 1823 was lost early. If it doesn't close back above that tomorrow, then just look at 1646, no fuss. Also, look at those daily bars—three consecutive days of heavy volume selling down. These people are really unloading. It's normal for the fourth day to kick it down again. Don't always try to catch the bottom; you might end up catching it halfway down. Below 1767, treat all rebounds as teasing you; they're either not reversals or traps. Just keep your stop loss tight, nothing else to fear. $ETH $BTC