The real ones who can't hold on in this bear market are actually the institutions Recently, I realized a very key point: in this bear market, the ones truly being liquidated and silently unable to hold on are not retail investors, but various institutions, even publicly listed ones. Many people feel this market isn't extreme, without earth-shattering crashes, and it feels quite ordinary. But in fact, this decline is very covert, yet its destructive power is extremely terrifying; ordinary people just can't see it. As the saying goes, "Institutions make it, institutions break it." During the bull market, institutions propped up the market and hoarded coins at high prices; Now in the bear cycle, it's their turn to pay the price: Heavy positions at high prices, forced painful sell-offs at lows, cash flow can't hold, layoffs and downsizing, pressure on the capital chain—this is the most realistic liquidation method in this bear market. MicroStrategy, well known to everyone, is actually among the best-off institutions in this batch. But the real storm is just beginning. Many institutions never reduced positions at highs, some even added leverage to tough it out. This drop to the 60k+ range has already forced a large volume of passive selling. Especially the miners, who face huge pressure: having signed long-term power contracts, fixed costs weigh heavily, and when the market weakens, they are forced to sell coins to raise cash, making them one of the hardest hit groups this round. This also explains many people's doubts: Why did the drop below 60k happen slowly, without volume spikes or crazy liquidation spikes? Because this isn't a leverage liquidation-driven crash, it's a slow bleed market where institutions genuinely can't hold on and are passively selling out. This kind of slow, grinding decline is the most exhausting and deadly. Don't be too surprised later if prices approach 52k or even the 40k range. This bear market is destined to send off a batch of institutions and listed companies that can't hold on. $BTC $ETH #非农数据公布：就业人口17.2万人，远超预期 #ZEC：官方今日公布Orchard供应审计

The biggest misconception in trading: missing a market move does not equal a loss In the trading market, there is a widely spread misunderstanding that misleads countless people: missing the current market move means trading failure. This very statement traps many traders in a vicious cycle of frequent operations and blind orders, ultimately resulting in losses. A true trader is never a gambler recklessly betting but a calm and patient hunter. A hunter who delays shooting may seem to miss the hunting opportunity, but in fact suffers no loss; the bullets and confidence remain intact. However, if one cannot endure the silence and fires randomly without timing, the outcome will only be a loss. Not only will precious chips be wasted and the target market disturbed, but reckless actions will also lead to unknown risk traps and market backlash. Remember this trading iron rule: missing out has no cost, but impulsive heavy positions can lead to total loss. Missed market moves are just missed profits, no need for regret; But every reckless, emotional trade can cause us to lose principal, miss turnaround opportunities, or even exit the market entirely. The core of trading is never about catching every wave but about protecting principal, controlling rhythm, and only taking opportunities you are confident in $BTC $ETH #非农数据公布：就业人口17.2万人，远超预期 #ZEC：官方今日公布Orchard供应审计

Six Iron Trading Rules Learned the Hard Way with Money, Each One a Lesson from Real Experience 1. Always Follow the Trend, Never Subjectively Bet on Turning Points The biggest taboo in trading is to guess tops against the trend or bottom pick against the trend. When the market is in an uptrend, never subjectively think the price is too high and blindly short to catch the top; when the overall trend is down, don’t just rely on feeling that the bottom is reached and randomly buy the dip. The market is always more extreme than you imagine: you think the high point is the top, but the market can still push higher; you think the decline has bottomed, but there may be deeper corrections ahead. Abandon subjective predictions and trade with the trend—this is the first rule for ordinary people to survive long in the market. 2. Position Management Takes Priority Over Any Market Judgment Many people obsess over price direction but overlook that position size is the foundation of trading. Even if you accurately predict the trend, an overly heavy position can cause a normal pullback or consolidation to wipe you out or cause significant losses. Conversely, even if your judgment is wrong, as long as you keep a light position and strictly stop losses, the loss will be a minor, manageable one. The core bottom line of trading: never let the loss of a single trade completely destroy your account. Staying alive in the market is far more important than winning a single bet. 3. Stop Loss Is a Must, Not a Lucky Option Stop loss is never optional; it is a mandatory prerequisite for every trade. Set your stop loss level before entering, and once triggered, decisively exit. Most large losses come from a moment of hesitation or wishful thinking. The market’s most harmful lie is that holding on will recover losses. Countless people have trusted this and turned originally controllable small losses into deep traps and heavy liquidation. 4. Only Trade High-Probability Setups, Avoid Ineffective Frequent Trading Trading profits don’t come from trading frequency but from high-quality opportunities. In sideways, volatile, or unclear markets, stay out and watch; never force trades. Many mistakenly think constant trading means effort, but reckless trading is the biggest cost. Looking at the whole year, truly worthy high-leverage, high-value trades are very few. Most of the time, the best trading decision is simply: wait. 5. Cut Losses Quickly and Let Profits Run, Uphold the Core Logic of Risk-Reward The common problem for most retail traders is: they panic to take small profits but stubbornly hold losing trades without stopping losses. This results in every profit being minimal and every loss turning into a deep trap, keeping the account in a vicious cycle. The ultimate logic for stable trading profits never changes: decisively cut losses and patiently let profits run. Everyone knows this, but very few can strictly implement it, which is the core reason for profit and loss gaps. 6. Reject Comparison Mentality, Only Earn Within Your Own Understanding The biggest cause of mental breakdown in trading is blindly comparing your returns to others. Others’ short-term doubling or huge profits have nothing to do with your trading system. Don’t envy others’ gains or blindly follow unfamiliar methods. Only trade what you understand and earn profits within your own knowledge scope. Comparison breeds impatience, impatience leads to distorted trading, and eventually falls into a cycle of continuous losses. Summary There are never complicated shortcuts or fresh mystical strategies in trading. All consistently profitable traders simply follow these most basic and simple rules day after day. Mastering fundamental discipline to the extreme is enough to outperform 90% of market participants. $BTC $ETH #非农数据公布：就业人口17.2万人，远超预期 #ZEC：官方今日公布Orchard供应审计

This bear market cycle: Bitcoin most likely has not yet bottomed out To be clear: the true bottom of this Bitcoin bear market probably hasn't arrived yet. Starting from the historical high of $126,000 in October 2025, BTC has currently retraced about 50%. But looking back at history, the true major bottoms of previous Bitcoin bear markets generally appeared in the 70%-80% retracement range. Historical bear market drawdowns reference - 2017-2018 bear market: high $19,118 → low $3,800, maximum drop nearly 80% - 2021-2022 bear market: high $69,000 → low $15,000, maximum drop about 78% Potential bottom estimate for this cycle If this bear market follows historical patterns, a 75%-77% drop from the $126,000 high would correspond to a bottom range of: $28,000–$30,000 Key reminder This is not a guaranteed outcome, but history repeatedly proves: the true major bottom never appears when everyone still dares to buy the dip. In the coming months, be sure to prepare for even more extreme market conditions. The harshest truth of a bear market: when you think the price is low enough, the market can always break through your faith’s bottom line further. $BTC $ETH #非农数据公布：就业人口17.2万人，远超预期 #ZEC：官方今日公布Orchard供应审计

History will be similar but not repeat, those going long should watch the risks $BTC $ETH #非农数据公布：就业人口17.2万人，远超预期 #ZEC：官方今日公布Orchard供应审计

The truth about frequent trading by retail investors: it's not addiction, but survival anxiety with small capital Many people mistakenly think that retail investors keep opening orders and trading frequently because they are addicted or can't control themselves. In fact, the root cause of most people's high-frequency operations is very practical: too little principal, too much pressure, and a strong desire to turn things around. This is not an excuse; it is the most realistic survival status of small capital. With only a tiny amount of principal in hand, watching the market fluctuate wildly every day, no one can calmly stay out of the market and just watch. In the eyes of small retail investors, every candlestick is an opportunity to change their situation. Missing a wave of the market means that for the next few months, they can only stay stagnant and struggle to get by. Many experts often say: trade less, wait more, hold long-term, and compound returns. This advice is not wrong, but it only applies to large capital. Those with sufficient principal can patiently endure trends, withstand drawdowns, and compound returns over the long term; missing one or two market waves is no big deal. But retail investors are completely different: With limited principal, extremely high time costs, and immediate life pressures, they simply don't have the confidence to wait three years for a double. What seems like a stable long-term strategy is full of uncertainties in reality: During a three-year cycle, countless short-term big market moves will be missed, and if money is urgently needed midway, they can only be forced to exit at a loss, which is very passive. Moreover, the crypto market itself is extremely volatile: 24/7 nonstop fluctuations, leverage amplifies all emotions, mainstream and altcoin markets alternate in volatility. Opening the market screen, you see opportunities everywhere but also traps all over. If you don't act, you're afraid of completely missing out and losing the chance to turn things around; If you act, you're afraid of misjudgment and falling into traps. The core demands of large and small capital have been completely different from the start: Large capital pursues stable compound returns and steady appreciation; Small capital just wants to grow quickly and break through social strata. So what retail investors are really gambling on in their hearts is never the win rate, but the payout ratio. Everyone knows clearly: ten small wins are just a drop in the bucket, but catching one big market wave can directly shorten years of struggle. This mindset itself is not wrong; wanting to break through quickly is the only way out for small capital. But the tragedy for most people is: They run out of all their principal before the market wave that changes their fate arrives. Countless meaningless frequent openings, chaotic trading, unwillingness to take small losses, inability to hold profits, emotionally heavy positions gambling. In the end, losses get stuck, and they always feel the market is targeting them. But the market never targets anyone; what really drags you down is the gambler's mentality eager to turn things around quickly. Objectively speaking, high-frequency trial and error and actively seeking opportunities with small capital is not a problem. To grow quickly, you must try more and explore more. The real problem is: most people just recklessly consume their principal and don't understand what they are trading. If you are also trapped in this vicious cycle: Afraid to stay out of the market, always wanting to gamble, afraid of missing out, and fearful of going to zero. Don't rush to change your trading frequency; first, root yourself and master the most basic skills: Learn to decisively cut losses, take profits rationally, and control emotions. The market never lacks turning points and opportunities to turn things around, What is truly scarce is those who can survive to the end and patiently wait for the opportunity. $BTC $ETH #非农数据公布：就业人口17.2万人，远超预期 #ETF多日净流出：比特币价格持续下跌

True Risk Control: Your Position Size Determines Your Trading Perception The most genuine human nature rule in trading: the size of your position directly determines your level of rationality. Different position sizes lead to vastly different mindsets and judgments: - Using only 1% position for trial trades, the mindset is extremely calm, able to step back and view the whole market; ​ - Controlling within 10% position, calm through rises and falls, completely unaffected by minor fluctuations; ​ - Position raised to 50%, mindset starts to tighten, originally clear rationality gradually wavers; ​ - Heavy position at 80%, emotions are completely hijacked by the market, judgment becomes fully distorted and collapses; ​ - Once fully invested at 100%, rationality is completely zeroed out, leaving only gambling and anxiety. Top trading iron rule: As long as your position is heavy enough to make you restless, sleepless, and emotionally out of control, no matter if you are bullish or bearish, no matter how perfect the market trend is, you must immediately reduce your position. Reduce to what standard? Reduce until your mindset is stable, calm, and you can sleep peacefully. A position size that lets you sleep well is the safest position size. The premise of all stable profits is always holding positions without stress. $BTC $ETH #Anthropic：高盛摩根领衔，最快10月上市 #HYPE：灰度ETF今日上线，机构多路吸筹

Let go of past internal struggles, life only moves forward In life, the most unnecessary consumption is repeatedly clinging to the past. There is no need to excessively blame yourself for past laziness, regrets, or mistakes, nor to dwell long in guilt and negative emotions. The past has already settled like dust; excessive entanglement and repeated internal struggles neither change the outcome nor improve life, but only continuously weigh down the present and hinder your steps forward. What truly helps you turn things around and grow is never reminiscing about the past, but focusing on the present and rushing toward the future. Calm down and seriously ask yourself: What do you truly love in your heart? What are you willing to cultivate deeply and devote yourself to long-term? At this stage, finding your direction and passion and going all out to settle and contribute is far more meaningful than indulging in past regrets. The greatest loss in life is not a momentary loss, but giving up the entire starry sky just because you lost a single star. This is also my deepest insight from my journey and deep cultivation of my career: No matter how many mistakes you have made or losses you have experienced in the past, the most important thing is not to complain about regrets or get entangled in gains and losses. Instead, immediately calm down and think about how to remedy the problem, solve the current situation, and steadily advance your life and career. The past is just a prologue; the road ahead is full of promise. Life is long, and time is always enough; there is no need to worry about being too late. As long as you are willing to let go of internal struggles and keep moving forward, all the surprises and miracles that belong to you are surely waiting ahead. $BTC $ETH #Anthropic：高盛摩根领衔，最快10月上市 #HYPE：灰度ETF今日上线，机构多路吸筹

The highest level of trading: act less, know when to stop, master being out of the market True advanced trading mindset is never about high-frequency operations or frequent order grabbing, but about restraint, knowing when to stop, and being good at waiting. Markets rise and fall in cycles, with constant volatility; mature traders always have a sense of measure in their hearts. Missed opportunities are calmly let go and patiently awaited; unclear market structures lead to staying out of the market and never forcing trades. When the mindset is restless and unstable, do not force trades; After significant profits, actively settle down and restore your state; After heavy losses, promptly regain composure and return to calm. This is not cowardice or missing opportunities, but a higher-dimensional trading strategy: using non-action to avoid uncertain risks. Many mistakenly think being out of the market means idleness or wasting time, but being out of the market is an active, advanced trading decision. Just like a top hunter does not shoot arrows randomly but waits stealthily for the best moment to strike. The market never lacks money-making opportunities; what it lacks are people who can endure loneliness, maintain discipline, and wait for certainty. Rushing impulsively into the market is mostly not for profit but to satisfy trading desires, ultimately only increasing losses and regrets. Those who can stay out of the market truly master the rhythm of trading. All traders with stable compound returns have their own mature position sizing systems. Whether it’s the commonly used 532, 523 structures, or 632, 622 layout logic, every position allocation is a precise balance of current market strength, risk level, and profit-loss ratio. The numbers seem simple, but behind them lie measure, vision, and risk control logic, which those who understand naturally grasp deeply. Trading is like walking a path; you don’t have to rush every second. Stopping at the right time to clarify direction and settle your mindset requires more composure and courage than blind rushing. Being out of the market is to calm restlessness, sharpen judgment, and accumulate strength. Resisting ineffective trades allows every entry to be precise, steady, and meaningful. $BTC $ETH #Anthropic：高盛摩根领衔，最快10月上市 #HYPE：灰度ETF今日上线，机构多路吸筹

In contract trading, the root cause of 90% of traders' failures stems from the reluctance to cut losses and blindly holding positions to endure losses. 1. Holding positions—seemingly gentle but actually a deadly psychological trap Most people share similar thoughts after being trapped: they comfort themselves that the market will rebound soon and plan to exit decisively after a slight further drop. But reality often disappoints; the market shows no reversal for a long time, and traders' mentality collapses after days of torment, ultimately suffering heavy passive losses. Stubbornly holding positions essentially reflects a gambler's mindset, mistaking uncontrollable market risks for confidence that can be overcome by simply holding on. 2. Gambling on holding positions will sooner or later lead to devastating liquidation Occasionally relying on market rebounds to recover losses can only be considered short-term luck. Market cycles always include extreme downturns, and a sudden deep pullback can wipe out all previous gains earned by holding positions. Investors who can endure small floating losses will ultimately struggle to resist huge losses caused by extreme market conditions; beginners who fail to learn from small losses will eventually be harshly taught by liquidation. 3. Steady trading is the core of long-term survival, relying on counterintuitive self-discipline Conservative and steady operation does not mean timidity; it is a sign of mature trading cognition. Timely stop-loss and exit are not signs of weakness but rational decisions after understanding risks. To establish a long-term foothold in the market, never rely on heavy positions to gamble on the market. By maintaining a stable mindset, controlling position risks, decisively admitting losses, following market trends, and strictly executing stop-losses, one can break free from gambler thinking and become a rational trader. These rules may seem plain and dull but are the foundation for navigating market fluctuations. 4. What defeats traders is never the market but their arrogant obsession Market trends will not change because of traders' position losses, nor will they accommodate expectations by rising against the trend. Holding positions stubbornly preserves not the chips but unrealistic fantasies; being deeply trapped and losing funds costs not only account capital but also precious opportunities for low-price layouts and turning losses into profits. Conclusion I advise new traders to abandon the bad habits of stubbornly holding positions and gambling with heavy stakes, and not to let emotional trading drain their capital. Those who last long in the market are never aggressive speculators who enter heavily but those who abide by rules and seek steady progress. Maintaining your own trading rhythm is the only way to survive steadily amid volatile markets. $BTC $ETH #Anthropic：高盛摩根领衔，最快10月上市 #HYPE：灰度ETF今日上线，机构多路吸筹