Entered the blockchain in 2016, now a 10-year veteran! Experienced three rounds of bull and bear markets, starting from altcoins! Believes in BTC, loves Ethereum, deeply involved in quantitative relationship technology, on-chain level 2, with technical indicators being the Vegas channel and Fibonacci sequence filtering MACD and KDJ. Currently settled in New Zealand! Friends are welcome to gather! Let's contribute to the web3 cause together! $BTC $ETH $OKB $SOL $DOGE

Now it's really going below 0.1.

From a technical perspective, the most obvious signal is the halt in the decline. After repeatedly testing the key support level, the index has stabilized without making new lows, indicating a clear weakening of the bears' momentum. Entering the weekend, the market moved into a phase of adjustment and consolidation, with volume contracting simultaneously, which suggests that selling pressure is easing and the market has shifted from panic selling to a weak balance between bulls and bears. More importantly, the candlestick pattern is forming a rising bottom structure—each low is higher than the previous one, and the center of gravity is slowly moving upward. This pattern is a classic bottom formation in technical analysis, meaning that every pullback is being supported by capital, and the market's "bottom" is being gradually raised step by step. If next week sees a breakout above short-term resistance with a strong bullish candle on increased volume, the reliability of this bottom will be greatly enhanced. The strategy for next week is actually quite simple: don’t rush to jump in early, and don’t be scared off by short-term fluctuations. Focus on whether the key pullback holds the previous low; during rebounds, watch if resistance levels can be broken on increased volume. Before the signal emerges, control your position size, stay in the market, and patiently wait for confirmation on the right side. The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is having bullets in your chamber and confidence in your heart when the opportunity arrives

ETH's secondary asset has fallen from grace. Remember the previous cycle, the 2018-2021 bull market, which was the explosive inaugural year of DeFi, with far-reaching impact that seriously influenced crypto investors' subsequent decisions! $ETH was then led alternately by the secondary asset and Bitcoin, leading all altcoins to the moon. The secondary asset bull market surged over 50 times, so many veteran crypto investors in the last cycle expected the secondary asset to shine again and achieve financial freedom. Almost everyone held more than 60% of the secondary asset, missing out on the 2024-2025 bull market! Ethereum ETH's price has remained sluggish due to multiple factors including internal ecosystem issues, external competition, institutional funds, and macro environment. The core reasons can be summarized as follows: 1. Significant decline in on-chain activity and revenue 2. Unexpected value diversion caused by technical upgrades 3. Weak internal ecosystem and fundamentals 4. External competition siphoning market share 5. Institutional confidence shaken, internal and external troubles!!! Current risks to watch out for: Short-term technical outlook remains bearish: ETH has broken the key support at $1600; if it falls below $1400, it is highly likely to further test the $1000-$1100 range, with a possibility of continued bottom searching in the short term; Over the past week, more than $1.28 billion long positions have been liquidated, severely damaging market bullish confidence. Macro environment remains uncertain: Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been reduced from three to one; the high interest rate environment will continue to suppress risk asset valuations. Pressure from ecosystem competition remains unresolved: New public chains continue to divert projects and funds from Ethereum. The actual effect of the core upgrade Glamsterdam hard fork still needs time to verify, and it is difficult to quickly reverse the trend of market share decline in the short term. Suitable investment strategy for ordinary investors: $ETH If you are a long-term value investor: You can adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach, initially building a partial base position at the current price level. If the price continues to drop to the $1000-$1200 range, add more to lower the average cost and hold long-term waiting for the next cycle.

Epic Bearish Review Since May From 82080 to 59080, from 2422 to 1503 — this is no coincidence, but a testament to our precise targeting all along! Don't ask how we could predict the threshold in advance — structure, liquidity, supply-demand imbalance, the market always rewards hunters who are one step ahead. ​

The biggest dark irony of the ZEC crash: Promoting absolute privacy, ultimately dying from the inability to prove innocence Looking across the entire cryptocurrency market's black swan events, ZEC's recent explosion is definitely the most ironic. As a benchmark project in the privacy coin sector, Zcash has always marketed itself with "absolute anonymity, complete on-chain privacy" as its core selling points, gaining a large number of loyal holders through its extreme privacy narrative. But no one expected that what would ultimately destroy its core value was precisely the privacy feature it proudly boasted. The most heartbreaking truth about this crash: No one can prove whether this fatal vulnerability, which had been lurking for four years, was secretly exploited. 1. A top-level vulnerability lurking for four years, easily uncovered by AI The core of this explosion is the incomplete elliptic curve constraint vulnerability in the ZEC Orchard protocol. Simply put, the project's underlying code left a logical flaw equivalent to a "universal backdoor." Exploiting this flaw, attackers could arbitrarily mint ZEC tokens, creating coins out of thin air. The scariest part is: such minting and unauthorized creation leave no trace on-chain; conventional audits and block queries cannot detect it at all. Even more disruptive to industry understanding is how this vulnerability was discovered: This high-risk vulnerability, which had been active in the code since May 2022 and dormant for nearly four years, was not found by professional blockchain security audit teams but was successfully uncovered by an ordinary person using a program written with Claude Opus 4.8. This again confirms an industry trend: AI is completely breaking through traditional on-chain security barriers, and the threshold for discovering blockchain vulnerabilities has been infinitely lowered. In the future, code vulnerabilities and underlying logic bugs in small and medium cryptocurrencies will become increasingly difficult to hide. 2. The real killer move: Privacy features completely backfire, unable to prove innocence If it were just an ordinary public chain vulnerability, the market wouldn't panic so much. For conventional public chain vulnerabilities, the industry has a mature response: tracing block data, full-chain audit and source tracking, checking fund flows, and ultimately clearly informing all users whether the vulnerability was exploited, whether funds were stolen, and how many tokens were minted. Everything can be verified, and risks can be quantified. But this logic completely fails for ZEC, which emphasizes absolute privacy. ZEC's core design logic is complete anonymity, untraceable on-chain, and untrackable transactions. To protect user privacy, it blocks all traceable and auditable on-chain data. But precisely because of this, everyone now faces an unsolvable deadlock: For the past four years, has this infinite minting vulnerability been secretly exploited by hackers? Has anyone quietly minted massive amounts of ZEC and dumped them to cash out? No one, no technology, no cryptographic method can provide proof. It's like your home safe has an invisible hole—you can't see the hole or the contents inside. You can never be sure if the contents have already been stolen. In capital markets, risks that cannot be ruled out are equivalent to risks that have already occurred. All rational capital has only one choice: flee, sell, and cut losses. This is the core reason why ZEC plunged 40% in a single day, nearly halving in value. This crash is truly not undeserved. 3. The whale who precisely shorted two weeks in advance raises suspicions More intriguing than the technical vulnerability in this incident is the precise operation of a top whale. Market data shows that whale Garrett Jin established a short position of 57,460 ZEC around May 23, precisely two weeks before the vulnerability was publicly disclosed. So far, this single operation has yielded a floating profit of $16.48 million, ranking first on Hyperliquid's floating profit leaderboard. In the crypto market, technical analysis can predict trends and capture volatility but absolutely cannot precisely predict a four-year dormant underlying code vulnerability undiscovered by any institution. Keep in mind, ZEC is only a second-tier privacy coin with limited liquidity. Daring to heavily short tens of thousands of coins in a calm market environment is not an operation by ordinary retail investors or typical quant funds. The two-week lead time, precise heavy position, and perfectly timed short all point to a highly probable truth: this is not a technical trade but an information asymmetry trade. The publicly disclosed vulnerability is no longer the core of market competition; capital with insider information has already completed the harvest. 4. ZEC has completely overdrawn its future: Privacy from selling point to fatal flaw In the short term, ZEC will likely see an oversold rebound after the plunge. On one hand, short positions are overly crowded, and profit-taking will drive price recovery; on the other hand, speculative funds will enter to gamble on a bottom-fishing oversold rebound. But from a long-term value perspective, ZEC's core narrative and trust foundation have completely collapsed. What is the core value logic of privacy coins? Users believe: asset security, theft-proof, trustworthy total supply, and controllable privacy. This incident directly shattered all beliefs: the once "absolute privacy" is no longer a shield protecting users but a cover-up for minting vulnerabilities, hacker attacks, and abnormal funds. In the past, privacy was ZEC's biggest selling point; Now, un-auditable and untraceable privacy has become its incurable fatal defect. If the Zcash project team cannot reconstruct the underlying logic, cannot launch a new mechanism that is auditable, traceable, and controllable privacy, and cannot solve the core problem of "inability to prove innocence," then this coin will completely lose its value attribute in the future. Going forward, ZEC will no longer be a benchmark privacy coin with practical value, but only a pure speculative asset. As for the whale who shorted with insider information and this silent precise harvest, it can only be said that this storm is far from over. Summary: ZEC's crash is not a simple technical vulnerability explosion but the ultimate paradox of the extreme anonymity narrative of privacy coins. Absolute privacy does not bring absolute security but absolute uncontrollability, unprovability, and untrustworthiness. $BTC $ZEC $ETH

Don't bottom fish, don't bottom fish BTC will definitely break below 60K, down to around 50K. Indeed, but not in the next few days, the bulls have already been wiped out, so continuing to push down doesn't make much sense. The retail investors have been cut, they need to be re-raised again. Pigs are always fattened before slaughter, otherwise they don't eat well. In the past two days, big players have fallen one after another, I, little Kalami, almost got wrecked too. Fortunately, I didn't go all in or heavily position; BTC has to drop to 55K for me to get liquidated. But yesterday I was really scared, truly afraid it would just die off in one go. Luckily, the dog whales aren't that stupid or cruel, around 60K there are institutional main funds bottom fishing and entering. It probably won't break below that in the short term. Being stuck in a losing position is really painful, and I can't brag anymore. Although I didn't get liquidated, I can't watch others get liquidated and laugh at them. Sigh, my fun has diminished a lot. Big player Xingchen has also been brutally beaten these past two days, after all losing 70%, how long will it take to break even? Don't blindly believe anyone is a god in this market, the market always teaches those who show off a lesson.

BTC Evening Analysis Continuing to be bearish BTC showed weakness during the midday session, with the price oscillating down from above 63000 to around 62018, a drop of nearly 3%. The candlesticks form a lower high descending channel, bulls lack strength to rebound, net capital outflow is evident, and bears dominate the market. BTC broke below short-term support, KDJ is stuck at a low level but has not formed a reversal signal. The current sideways movement may be a consolidation before further decline. If it fails to reclaim the 62500 level, it is highly likely to test the 61000 support line next, and any rebound may be a bear trap.

Attention! Attention! Attention! BTC is going to surge massively tonight 📈📈📈📈 Non-farm payroll data is coming, and there are two more data points to be released, a night full of news is about to arrive After another downward spike There will be a 5000-point fluctuation!!!!!! Lower spike range 58888-59333 Target 61088-63377 ETF net outflow for multiple days: Bitcoin price continues to fall, expected to bottom out tonight!

Long time no see! BTC's 200-week moving average! Bottom fishing? Many people haven't realized that I have accurately predicted two major BTC crashes this year. On the timeline, I was the earliest in the entire network, bar none. On January 15th, I precisely projected the first BTC crash from 98000 by drawing lines. Last month, using the most rigorous market maker mindset, I predicted the May bull trap and the June dump down to the 6xxxx range. 1. During yesterday's drop, Bitcoin touched the 200-week moving average, slightly piercing it before pulling back. Strictly according to the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), this is basically the first time in this downtrend that BTC has truly hit the 200-week line. In February, BTC bottomed around 60000, but the 200-week line was about 57500 then, so it only approached without truly touching; in March, it was still considered not to have actually tested the 200-week line. 2. Looking back to the previous cycle, the last time BTC repeatedly contested the 200-week line was during the 2022–2023 bear market bottom range. So this time touching the 200-week line roughly means it hasn't truly retested it for about two and a half to three years. 3. Bottom fishing? Is this the bottom? Answer: Most likely, this is not the bottom yet. The market has reached the long-term bottom observation zone but cannot confirm the bottom! (1) Last month's bull trap has not yet completed the final liquidity hunt. (2) International tensions remain high, fundamentals are poor. No ceasefire between the US and Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. (3) There is currently no large influx of funds entering to bottom fish. (4) The current brief rebound and support are just technical indicators triggering short-covering. In summary: My very cautious advice to all brothers and sisters is: it depends on the individual and the sufficiency of funds. Those who reduced positions earlier can now consider dollar-cost averaging, while those with very tight funds, at risk of liquidation with any slight move, should not operate at all. So you need to wait for the best bottom-fishing opportunity and look for a better cost-performance ratio before entering. 4. A few days ago, at the market's best position, I publicly advised everyone to short all overvalued US stocks; I hope you remember. Many targets have already started to perform.

Is making ten million from crypto trading considered a crime of unexplained large assets? I am somewhat qualified to answer, having withdrawn 5.5 million USDT. In 2024, I withdrew 2 million USDT, in 2025, 2.5 million USDT, bought three houses, and a Ferrari Roma. Making 100 million RMB in USDT from crypto trading is not considered a crime of unexplained large assets. If your account holds USDT and you do not exchange USDT for fiat currency, no one can notice any abnormal transaction behavior. If the exchange is with a trustworthy friend using stock market/investment funds, at most the bank will freeze the card and clarify the source of funds within 14 days (loan? bride price? any reason works), and you just need to provide chat records and proof of WeChat/friendship. In 2024, I withdrew 5 million, 5 million, 5 million; the first transaction was frozen for investigation, but after two days of review, it was unfrozen and I was issued a private banking card. Now, the daily transfer limit is 1 million freely, and transfers above 1 million require a U-shield. The key to making ten million here lies in the USDT to RMB exchange. If the counterparty in the RMB exchange gives you some dirty money or involves pyramid schemes, scams, or gambling funds, then you are in trouble. Therefore, generally avoid OTC for exchanging money. OTC collects your identity information, and if they stop OTC later, they can use all the information of people who have withdrawn funds to set traps. These people know who deposits/withdraws a lot, and later can easily fabricate dirty USDT and blacklists, causing you to lose all your digital assets.