In the second quarter of 2026, the trading logic of the Bitcoin market underwent a fundamental reversal. The institutional incremental bull market driven by spot ETFs has completely ended. The current market faces a quadruple negative impact from continuous ETF redemptions, liquidity siphoning by US AI stocks, stalemate in US-Iran geopolitical tensions, and weakening institutional long positions. The combination of multiple factors has caused the monthly technical pattern of Bitcoin to break down, market liquidity to continue tightening, and a short-term weak trend to be basically established. From the capital perspective, spot Bitcoin ETFs have entered a sustained redemption cycle. As of early June, all US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, marking the longest outflow period since institutional entry in this round. The cumulative net outflow in the past month has exceeded 4 billion USD, with core products like BlackRock's IBIT and Grayscale's GBTC facing significant redemption pressure; IBIT alone saw over 2 billion USD outflow in a single month. The total ETF assets under management have fallen from a recent peak of 109 billion USD to 80 billion USD. As the core channel for incremental market funds, continuous redemptions force institutions to passively sell spot holdings, directly causing a depletion of buy-side liquidity and shrinking trading volume, which is the core fundamental bearish factor pressuring the current price. Cross-market liquidity diversion is the underlying reason for capital flight. In Q2, the US AI sector's earnings certainty continued to strengthen, with related thematic funds attracting capital at a five-year high. Global major asset classes are continuously reallocating, withdrawing from the crypto market and flowing into the AI sector. The already insufficient liquidity in the crypto space is being continuously drained, creating a negative cycle of price decline, capital flight, and further liquidity tightening, leading to a sustained decline in overall market risk appetite. The key emotional trigger accelerating this downturn is the coin-selling behavior of leading institution MicroStrategy. At the end of May, MicroStrategy disclosed the sale of 32 Bitcoins to pay dividends. This sale accounted for only 0.0038% of its total holdings, so the actual selling pressure is negligible, but it completely shattered the market's core bullish narrative of "institutions holding long-term without selling." As an industry benchmark holder, MicroStrategy's slight coin sale directly triggered a collapse of market confidence. After the news, Bitcoin plunged over 8.5% in a single day, consecutively breaking key supports at 70,000 USD and 68,000 USD to around 62,000 USD, further intensifying the ETF redemption stampede. Meanwhile, the US-Iran geopolitical conflict remains stalemated with no signs of easing, further suppressing market risk appetite. Bitcoin has temporarily lost its "digital gold" safe-haven attribute; the geopolitical tension failed to generate safe-haven buying, instead exacerbating market hesitation, unable to hedge the dual negative impacts on capital and sentiment. Technically, Bitcoin's monthly-level bullish structure has completely broken down, with price losing key support and medium- to long-term moving averages turning from support to resistance. Market long leverage is concentrated in forced liquidations, with liquidation positions continuously released, amplifying market volatility. A medium- to long-term weak trend has already formed. In summary, in the short term of 1-2 months, before ETF capital inflows return and the US AI siphoning effect eases, Bitcoin will maintain a weak bottom-seeking trend. The core support is at 62,000 USD; if this is effectively broken, it will test the 58,000 USD range. Mid-term market recovery requires at least two of the three core positive factors: Federal Reserve rate cuts, ETF capital inflows, and easing geopolitical risks. The long-term halving cycle fundamentals still provide support, but short-term bearish factors dominate the market, making a weak consolidation likely. It is recommended to strictly control leverage and avoid downside risks. #ETF多日净流出：比特币价格持续下跌

Jensen Huang pointed to Marvell's logo during his Computex 2026 speech and said: Ladies and gentlemen, this is the next trillion-dollar company. He was referring to Marvell (MRVL). After hours, MRVL surged from $219 to a high of $262 on heavy volume. I Googled related news and found that at the end of March 2026, NVIDIA and Marvell jointly announced that NVIDIA completed a $2 billion strategic investment in Marvell in the form of convertible preferred stock. This money is not a financial investment but a deep binding to each other on the next generation of AI interconnects. Globally, the only company that can simultaneously cover silicon photonics, CPO, CXL, switch PHY, and deeply embed into NVIDIA's NVLink physical layer is almost exclusively Marvell. If NVIDIA is the heart of AI, then Marvell is the new type of blood vessel for AI—the heart is responsible for explosive computing power, and the blood vessels instantly connect countless computing nodes, both indispensable. Jensen Huang's statement essentially publicly acknowledges that at the physical layer of AI interconnects, NVIDIA has entrusted its lifeline to Marvell. Currently, MRVL's market cap is around $200 billion. If it truly reaches a trillion, that's about a 5x upside. No one can guarantee the probability, but at least, Jensen Huang was definitely not speaking casually this time.

Damn MicroStrategy sold 32 BTC, and BTC instantly plummeted below $72,000, not sure if it will hold steady. The company's stance is routine treasury cash management, not a strategic shift, and they will continue to be net buyers in the long term. The monthly chart itself is already deteriorating, liquidity hasn't improved at all, misfortunes come all at once. $BTC

I should have made some profit from Binance Life and HYPE, but I didn't. Where did I go wrong? You could say it was one wrong step after another! I've been making the same mistake repeatedly. Back then, I was very optimistic about layer 2 and heavily invested in ARB and OP, missing out on SUI during the same period. I was very bullish on SUI (which later increased tenfold), but because I favored ARB, I thought holding ARB would make money too, so I didn't see the point in shifting some ARB positions to SUI. I completely forgot the saying "a crafty rabbit has three burrows." I tweeted about Binance Life, the totem meme of Binance exchange, worth holding long-term. Binance will definitely pump it up, and today's coin price proves my initial judgment was correct. But I had no position—I was just an idiot. The reason was that I was fully invested (not fully in Binance Life), and the entire portfolio was deeply underwater, so I got shaken out. Pessimistically, I stopped losses on some altcoins, including Binance Life. If I hadn't been so aggressive from the start, holding half in spot and not heavily investing in Binance Life, building a 100,000 U position, I could have held through further drops and most likely added more if it fell 70%-80%. The same goes for HYPE. I only realized late that HYPE was promising, with opportunities to build positions around 20 U or 40 U, but because I was fully invested in spot and got halved earlier, I lost the calm judgment to think clearly. To sum up, I must not repeat my mistakes. A crafty rabbit has three burrows—choose multiple good targets and don't put all your eggs in one basket. Control your position sizes; a healthy allocation is the nuclear weapon to survive cycles, always leaving room for error. I believe I still have a chance. After reviewing, I will definitely do better in the future. Be patient, and when the next opportunity comes, act bravely and decisively. $HYPE

No matter the age, long live happiness, brothers, happy Children's Day~ Bitcoin's May monthly candle closed painfully! High volume at the top followed by a pullback, ending the previous two consecutive rises. Monthly-level adjustment signals are appearing, and the current phase is expected to be mainly range-bound. Both upper resistance and lower support are very clear. I've slightly reduced some spot positions, currently half spot and half U (BTC\BNB\OKB\SUI\ASTER). Going forward, mainly observing and waiting for subsequent breakout or stabilization signals. $BTC $OKB $BNB

Amid the current AI-driven rally in the U.S. stock market, one can clearly feel the bustling bullish trading enthusiasm on the floor. However, in stark contrast stands Berkshire Hathaway's historic cash reserve of nearly $400 billion, sending a clear signal that U.S. stock valuations are currently high, quality assets with a margin of safety are scarce, and risks are accumulating. On one side, there is collective excitement in capital and sentiment; on the other, value-oriented institutions are actively choosing to hedge, indicating the need to maintain some rationality. Lastly, the U.S. federal debt, which has surpassed $39 trillion in scale, looms as a long-term macro risk over the stock market that cannot be ignored.

Vitalik announced a pause on long technical blogs to rewrite a sci-fi novel themed around decentralized governance. Does Ethereum still have a future? ETH currently lacks a compelling new narrative; the old stories have been overused. Without a POW floor, POS acts as a downside accelerator, with staking creating continuous selling pressure and amplifying leverage risks. BitMine bought about 4.5% of the total supply, yet the price hasn't risen but fallen, resulting in a 40% unrealized loss. With such poor macro liquidity, a whale like BitMine dragging ETH into the abyss has become the biggest risk for ETH at this stage. As long as BitMine doesn't die, give up, or liquidate, ETH will struggle to be reborn! $ETH

In spot positions, anyone holding HYPE without a 10U or 20U cost basis is a crypto rookie (including myself). HYPE has once again taught me that for high-potential quality assets, you just hold on regardless of market conditions; sooner or later, it will take off. As the absolute leader in decentralized perpetual contract exchanges, it has its own public chain, real trading volume, real revenue, 99% of trading fees are used for buyback and burn, passively deflating every day, with strong buy orders on the order book; RWA (US stocks/gold/oil) opens new space, no longer relying solely on crypto cycles, it is truly a "fundamental + deflation + real demand" growth asset. #HYPE多空决战：最大空头爆仓删号 $HYPE

Samsung Electronics' South Korean union has confirmed that today's wage negotiation talks at Samsung Electronics in South Korea have once again broken down. Tomorrow, 47,000 semiconductor workers at Samsung will start an 18-day general strike (May 21 - June 7). When the news first broke, the Korean stock market triggered a one-day circuit breaker, pushing the global chip and AI supply chain to the brink. Globally, Samsung holds over 40% of the DRAM market ("working memory" for phones/computers/servers), over 30% of the NAND market (storage space for hard drives/SSDs/phones), and over 25% of the HBM market (high-speed memory dedicated to AI servers/GPUs, essential for Nvidia/AI computing power). The supply shortage is intensifying, raising costs across the entire AI server, storage, electronics, and automotive supply chains, reigniting stagflation concerns. Will this time the safe-haven properties of gold and $BTC manifest? #三星芯片罢工：48小时倒计时

Samsung's biggest strike in 57 years countdown! South Korean stocks hit circuit breaker in one day, global chip and AI supply chains on the edge of a cliff. From May 21 to June 7, 47,000 Samsung semiconductor workers will launch an 18-day total strike; South Korean stocks just hit a historic high of 8,000 points, then plunged over 6% triggering a circuit breaker; global DRAM/NAND/HBM supply tightens further, costs rise across AI servers, storage, electronics, and automotive full chains, stagflation expectations reemerge, BTC's safe-haven attribute is being repriced. 1. Why the strike? The core conflict is very real Union demands: abolish the 50% bonus cap, participate in AI windfall profit sharing. Trigger: SK Hynix next door offers higher and more flexible bonuses, causing Samsung employees' psychological imbalance. Negotiation breakdown: talks collapsed early morning May 13; 93% of union members voted in favor of the strike. Duration: May 21–June 7, total 18 days; over 47,000 participants, the largest in Samsung's history. 2. The market has already voted with its feet: KOSPI "new high → circuit breaker" in just half a day May 15 morning session: KOSPI breaks 8,000 points for the first time, historic high. Afternoon flash crash: max -7.6%, triggered circuit breaker; closed at -6.12%. Weighted stocks dragged down: Samsung -8.6%, SK Hynix -7.7%, foreign investors net sold about $3.7 billion in one day. Essence: South Korean stock market = semiconductor stock market, Samsung + Hynix account for about 40% of the index, foreign investors heavily invested, retail investors highly leveraged, a black swan event causes a direct stampede. 3. Latest developments: court injunction + government pressure, but strike likely to proceed as scheduled May 18 court injunction: core production lines (wafer/lithography/power) must operate, union violations fined up to 300 million KRW per day; production lines won’t fully stop, but packaging, testing, logistics, and administration will be paralyzed. Employer actions: preemptive production cuts to control risk, prioritizing HBM/AI high-end orders. Labor negotiations: minor concessions on both sides, but bonus base and full coverage remain deadlocked; government threatens to initiate 30-day compulsory arbitration. Strike on May 21 likely to proceed as planned but will be a partial paralysis with core supply maintained. 4. Global impact: chip price hikes, AI slowdown, stagflation heating up Storage: Samsung’s global market share DRAM >40%, NAND ≈30%, HBM ≈25%. If strike lasts 18 days: global DRAM shortage 3%–4%, NAND 2%–3%, equivalent to losing a major manufacturer. Prices: DRAM contract prices have risen 60% this quarter, strike may push prices up another 20%–40%. Transmission: costs rise for phones/PCs/cars/AI servers, global CPI may increase another 0.2%–0.4%, stagflation expectations strengthen. AI: HBM delivery delayed 1–2 months, Nvidia/cloud providers slow capex, AI bull market cools temporarily. 5. Impact on BTC: indirect positive, safe-haven logic strengthened Direct impact: BTC mining machines use TSMC ASICs, Samsung does not produce them, so no direct impact on hash rate. This is not an ordinary labor dispute but a stress test for the global AI and semiconductor supply chain. On May 21, the global tech and crypto markets are watching Samsung’s production lines closely. #三星芯片罢工：48小时倒计时