#ADPJobsRunHot ADPJobsRunHot: 122,000 Jobs. Pay Up 4.4%. The Fed's June Meeting Just Got More Complicated. May's ADP report dropped this morning — 122,000 private sector jobs added, the most since January 2025, beating the 117,000 consensus. Pay grew 4.4% year-over-year. Eight out of ten sectors added jobs. ADP's chief economist called it "more broad-based than we've seen in the last few years." The headline sounds good. For the Fed, it's a problem. A labor market this resilient gives Warsh zero justification to cut rates at the June 16-17 meeting. Rate hike probability is already at 30-39% following the CPI, PPI, and PCE triple beat in May. A hot jobs number piled on top of a 3.8% CPI and 3.3% core PCE means every data point is pointing the same direction — higher for longer. Bank of America pushed its first cut forecast to July 2027. BNP Paribas warned of three consecutive hikes. The Iran angle is what nobody is fully pricing. The blockade entered its 95th day this week. Energy costs are up 17.9% year-over-year. Bloomberg noted that a key question ahead is whether a war now entering its fourth month starts weighing on hiring — it hasn't yet. The Friday NFP report is expected to show 85,000 jobs, which would mark the strongest three-month hiring stretch in over a year. Strong jobs. Hot inflation. A Fed meeting in 13 days. A war with no end date. Every data point is telling Warsh the same thing. The market just hasn't fully believed it yet.